Good thing that I am not a scout or Trevor Timmins for that matter. In my previous post, I predicted that Montreal would draft Grigorenko third (Galchenyuk was my second choice though). I was however right that Montreal would select a center that is projected to become number #1.
I admit that I am not a scout and that I have not seen Grigorenko or Galchenyuk play live. (I view myself as a strategy and capologist.) My intuition was primarily based on the weird path that Grigorenko took in the last year... but now that I am thinking about it, Galchenyuk's path is even more "sketchy": he almost didn't play the whole season! And the ploy that the Montreal Canadiens would have used in this case is exactly the same they probably used to tank this season: faked (or "embellished") ACL injury.
This would also not be the first time in my opinion that the Montreal Canadiens would have used a similar ploy to get a specific player when they are selecting at the top of the draft: see Andrei Kostitsyn 10th in 2003 (fake epilepsy medical report) who had only played 16 games in his draft season.
http://watch.tsn.ca/nhl/clip690536#clip707297
Now look at this next video that was shot in August 2011. Look at how scrawny Galchenyuk looks compared to the previous one.
Now if you are the Montreal Canadiens in August 2011 and you know that Galchenyuk is your guy and that you judge that his hockey play is sufficiently developed, faking an injury has the following two advantages:
1. You can possibly secure him at a lower drafting rank (injury fears + scouts from other teams see less of him)
2. Galchenyuk can focus 100% on working out and developing himself physically to be ready to play in the NHL next year (something that is more difficult to do if you also play 80+ games at the same time)
Alex Galchenyuk profile:
Character similar to Louis Leblanc
Gym workhorse
Life dedicated to hockey
Gifted scoring touch and great backhand (natural scorer)
Great speed and explosion on the ice (great fit for the Montreal Canadiens who create breakaways etc.)
And most importantly, can execute plays at top speed
NHL combine test results
Prospect ranked #1 for peak power output distancing 2nd prospect by 0.6 Watts/kg
http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=80653
Alex sure does not look as scrawny here compared to the the August 2011 interview video.
-There are a lot of fans in Montreal watching you right now, can you tell them what kind of player you are [...] ?
-Just wait and see
http://www.rds.ca/zone-video/#cat=en_vedette&videoID=111641
Galchenyuk has a clear intention to play in the NHL next year
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=635624&navid=DL|NHL|home
Galchenyuk game highlights
***
Now that step #1 of my plan described in my previous post is completed (draft a #1 center), step #2 to 5 still need to be done. Step #2, 3 & 4 need to be done tomorrow at draft day #2. Information acquired today however slightly changed my plan.
STEP #2 - Trading Kaberle and Weber
As I envisioned the Islanders acquired an offensive defenseman only Visnovsky instead of Kaberle.
The Islanders could however still be interested to acquire Yannick Weber in exchange of voiding the conditional 5th round pick that they acquired from Montreal in the Wisniewski trade (that pick would translated in a 2013 4th round pick since MTL dealt it away to Calgary in the Cammaleri trade).
Edmonton however did not acquire a puck moving defense today and could be interested to acquire one, namely Kaberle. Kaberle - Whitney would make a great pair on the power play. And Kaberle could feed their speedy young forwards at 5v5. Kaberle vs Edmonton's 2nd round pick in 2012 is still a possibility.
STEP #3 - Acquiring Iginla
Calgary trading down in the first round to acquire a second round pick from Buffalo removes one of the motivations that I had listed to deal Iginla to Montreal. Calgary could still however be interested to acquire a second 2nd round pick in 2012.
Also, a dubious and unconfirmed rumor from David Staples that suggest that the Flames are offering a 6-year 6 million per season deal to Jokinen which would void my reasoning. (There is no place for Desharnais and Jokinen on their team.)
https://twitter.com/dstaples/status/216337768375263232
This step is not contingent on step #2, but if step #2 is not done this would imply that Montreal would have no 2nd round pick in 2012.
STEP #4 - Acquiring Suter and the Kostitsyn brothers
Everything is still possible at this point. However, if Montreal chooses to draft at the 51th position (Nashville's 2nd round pick) this would void my theory.
STEP #5 - Signing Parise
The Penguins made a splash trade Friday be dealing away Jordan Staal to the Canes. They also traded Michalek to Phoenix. They thus freed 5,933M$ of cap space.
Staal (4M$) + Michalek (4M$) - Sutter (2,067M$)
This is a clear indication to me that Pittsburgh is looking to find at least one quality winger for Crosby. Signing or acquiring a quality winger would greatly help the negotiations to retain Crosby in Pittsburgh. Parise is probably their #1 target. If Montreal could snatch him from them, they would find themselves in a weakened position (no Staal and no quality winger). Pittsburgh trading for Iginla would imply for them also giving other assets.
My dream team could still prove a reality (added-in Galchenyuk instead of Grigorenko). Tomorrow will indicate if that dream can still be a possibility.
FORWARDS
Zach Parise ($7.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Jarome Iginla ($7.000m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Alex Galchenyuk ($3.175m) / Andrei Kostitsyn ($4.000m)
Sergei Kostitsyn ($2.750m) / Lars Eller ($1.600m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Mathieu Darche ($0.700m) / Ryan White ($0.688m) / Travis Moen ($1.700m)
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan Suter ($7.000m) / P.K. Subban ($3.750m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.900m)
Alexei Emelin ($1.100m) / Raphael Diaz ($1.100m)
GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($6.300m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
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SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $70,287,500
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $12,500
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=7584
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