Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Possible Compliance Buy-Out Loophole

Earlier today, TSN announced that the NHL and NHLPA agreed to accelerated compliance buy-outs. The important excerpts are the following:
"Teams are now eligible to exercise an "accelerated compliance buyout" on one player with a salary cap hit of $3 million or more before the regular season begins on Saturday."

"In order for a player to be bought out this week, he still must clear waivers first."

"Team will take the full cap hit on such players this season, less the $900,000 for not burying the player in the minors, but suffer no cap hit next season or beyond."

"Teams would pay out 100 per cent of a player's actual salary this year and two-thirds or one-third (as applicable) over twice the remaining term of the contract and the player is free to sign elsewhere."

"However, there's no actual benefit to the teams to take this plan of action other than as a favour to the player to perhaps allow them to sign with another team right away." (or is there?)

I originally intended to write about this subject once the full new CBA was available online, but this new development forced me to write about it today before it becomes irrelevant (or materializes).

Here is the paragraph concerning compliance buy-outs from the summary of terms of the NHL/NHLPA proposed CBA that is available online.
"During the Ordinary Course “Buy-Out” periods following the 2012/13 season and 2013/14 season, in addition to any other Ordinary Course “Buy-Outs” a Club may elect to effectuate pursuant to Paragraph 13 of the SPC, Clubs may elect to terminate and “buy-out” the already existing SPCs of up to two (2) additional Players (in the aggregate over the two (2) years) on a Compliance basis (a “Compliance Buy-Out”). Such Compliance Buy-Out(s) would be effectuated on the same terms as are set forth in Paragraph 13 of the SPC, except that the amounts paid under such “buy-out(s)” will not be charged against the Club’s Cap in any of the years in which the payments are made to the Player. Amounts paid under such Compliance Buy-Out(s) will, however, be counted against the Players’ Share during any League Year in which the “buy-out” payments are made. A Player that has been bought out under these Compliance Buy-Out provisions shall be prohibited from re-joining the Club that bought him out (via re-signing, Assignment, Waiver claim or otherwise) for the duration of the 2013/14 League Year (if the Player was bought out in 2013) and the 2014/15 League Year (if the Player was bought out in 2014)."
The intent to prohibit a team from re-acquiring the player it has bought out via the compliance buy-out is clear. However, there is a way around this, because the criteria used is "the Club that bought him out" instead of say "the Club that had the player on its payroll for the 2011-2012 season". All you need to go around this is two teams with two similar "bad contracts" that they want to buy out with the accelerated compliance buy-out. By trading two similar bad contracts, placing them on unconditional waivers and than using the accelerated compliance buy-out, the original team would be able to re-sign its own player to more favorable terms and possibly enjoying very good value on the new contract for the 2013-2014 season if it has at least a two-year term. Since these "bad contracts" have very bad value in a cap system, they are very unlikely to be reclaimed on waivers by any team (teams in big markets that could be tempted by such contracts do not have the cap space necessary this season to keep them while teams in small markets do not have the internal budget to afford them). 

Using an accelerated compliance buy-out now is also a better option than using a simple compliance buy out this summer if you want the player with the bad contract to play for your team this season, because if that player suffers from a long-term injury during the season, the team will not be able to buy him out during the summer buy-out period (which could have catastrophic consequences for the 2013-2014 season when the cap goes down to 64.3M). One thing that could however mitigate this risk to abuse the LTIR reserve next season like the Flyers are currently doing with Chris Pronger.

Let's take as an example the two contracts that are currently regarded as the worst: Scott Gomez's and Wade Redden's. The terms of both are extremely similar: both have two seasons and 10M$ left to pay (without taking into consideration the current prorated season). A Scott Gomez-Wade Redden trade would imply that the Montreal Canadiens use one of their 2 compliance buy-outs on Wade Redden's contract thus giving the New York Rangers (and the 28 other teams) the chance to re-sign him to more favorable terms and imply the New Rangers use one of their 2 compliance buy-outs on Scott Gomez's contract thus giving the Montreal Canadiens (and the 28 other teams) the chance to re-sign him.

Accelerated compliance buy-out payments (first year prorated for a 48-game season, payments are outside the cap, but not outside the players' share)
Scott Gomez: Y1:3.220M, Y2:1.500M, Y3:1.500M, TOT: 6.220M
Wade Redden: Y1:2.927M, Y2:1.667M, Y3:1.667M TOT: 6.260M

A total amount difference of around 41K (which is further reduced by the time value of money) that the Montreal Canadiens would have to pay in extra for buying out Wade Redden instead of Scott Gomez (which is peanuts for a big market team).

By being bought out at the start of the season with an accelerated compliance buy-out, Scott Gomez loses 1.5M on the last year of his contract (plus one year of interest on the year-3 1.500M). If Scott Gomez subsequently signs a contracts that pays him 1.500M over, let's say, the next two years, the total amount of money received (excluding the one-year interest lost) by Gomez would be the same as if he fulfilled his original contract and with the same opportunity cost (ie he will be able to re-sign elsewhere only after the 2013-2014 season). Because the 2012-2013 season has only 48 games, such a "complimentary total-money-received-neutral contract" would have a 1.016M caphit over two years (with only 1.500M actually paid). If the Montreal Canadiens hand out such a contract to Scott Gomez, the total impact on the cap for the 2012-2013 season is a loss of 0.116M in cap space and a gain of 6.342M in cap space for the 2013-2014 season (when cap space will be a most) versus the scenario of not buying him out.

Simarly for Wade Redden, by being bought out at the start of the season with an accelerated compliance buy-out, Redden loses 1.667M on the last year of his contract (plus one year of interest on the year-3 1.667M). If Wade Redden subsequently signs a contracts that pays him 1.667M over the next two years, the total amount of money received (excluding the one-year interest lost) by him would be the same as if he fulfilled his original contract and with the same opportunity cost (ie he will be able to re-sign elsewhere only after the 2013-2014 season). Because the 2012-2013 season has only 48 games, such a "complimentary total-money-received-neutral contract" would have a 1.128M caphit over two years (with only 1.667M actually paid). If the New York Rangers hand out such a contract to Wade Redden, the total impact on the cap for the 2012-2013 season is a loss of 0.228M in cap space and a gain of 5.372M (when cap space will be a most) versus the scenario of not buying him out.

The underlying assumption is that the bought-out players may be psychologically inclined to sign break-even contracts (see the recent Colby Armstrong contract). It is interesting to note that if Gomez (Redden) signs one two-year or two one-year contracts with actual pay higher than 1.500M (1.667M), they will make more money that way (with higher risk) than if they simply fulfilled their original contract.

The inherent risk to this strategy is that 28 other teams can also offer a new contract to the bought out players (since they are becoming UFA after being bought out) and they are potentially in a better position to do so, because they are not carrying the original cap hit of the player with the bad contract (minus 900K) this season on their cap. By making the original trade (Gomez for Redden), the Rangers and Habs are also tipping off the 28 other GMs in the league that they have the intention to re-sign their own player thus making it harder to re-sign them to friendly terms.

However, the fact that NHLPA and the NHL still seem able to add/change the rules of the new CBA (see new accelerated buy-outs) probably means that the wording of this clause could still change and fix this loophole.

Update (Jan-16): Both Scott Gomez and Wade Redden have been placed on unconditional waivers today by their respective teams and no trade has taken place. They are thus not in the future plans of their respective team and there is no possible way that the potential loophole discussed above will be used.

Friday, November 30, 2012

The Markov Conspiracy

One of the question marks for next season is Andrei Markov. Will he remain the Habs' quarterback at the blue line like he used to be a few years ago? Will he be able to generate the same level of offense? The general feeling seems rather pessimistic with some even suggesting that Markov is finished. His meager 3 points and minus-4 in 13 games at the end of last season were the basis of this speculation last summer. Now, his slow start in the KHL seems to corroborate the feeling that he won't be able to put anything near the numbers he used to just three years ago when he was considered one of the Top-5 defensemen in the league.


Last night, Markov was back from a minor rib injury and played with Vityaz which won 4:3 in over time over Metallurg Mg (Malkin's team). Markov finished the game with the following stats according to the KHL:
24:38 TOI on 26 shifts, 0 Pts, 0 SOG, +1 

Or did he? After simply watching the highlights of the game on the official KHL youtube channel, I came, to my surprise, to a different conclusion.


At 4:18 begins the sequence that leads to Vityaz's 3rd goal of the game. The left point defenseman(whose number is not visible) makes a pass to the right point defenseman (#36 Yakov Seleznyov) who takes a one-timer shot at the net which is tipped by a forward (#69 Nikita Dvurechensky) for the goal.

A few seconds later at 4:27, for a split second you can identify that the left point defenseman was indeed Andrei Markov.

However, no point was credited to Markov for that goal. Unlike the NHL, the KHL does not automatically credit secondary assists to the third last teammate that has touched the puck. You need to "be part of the play" to earn it. I could however not find an official definition that differentiates an "unearned secondary assist" from an "earned" one. Even if I personally believe that Markov was a contributor on that play, whether he deserves an assist or not on that last goal is debatable. There is however absolutely no doubt possible that he did deserve one on the next goal.

At 5:28 is the begging of the play that leads to the 4th winning goal in over time on a 4vs3: #94 Alexander Korolyuk makes a pass to #27 Andrei Markov who makes another pass at #2 Brian Fahey who shoots and scores. On the official KHL scoresheet, Fahey was rewarded with the goal and Korolyuk with an assist. However, Markov received no assist. Find the error.

***

This demonstration leads to the following: Was this a one-time fluke from the KHL? or are Markov's statistics systematically not adequately reported? Further research (such as reviewing all past Vityaz highlights) would be necessary to answer that question. Also, whom would benefit from such systematic underreporting? :)

Monday, July 23, 2012

Path to the Stanley Cup Part I - A New Identity?

I now begin a series of 7 articles that will take a look at the Montreal Canadiens' eventual path to the Stanley Cup.

The first quinquennial plan (2003-2004 to 2008-2009) established by Bob Gainey was a failure. The Montreal Canadiens didn't win the Stanley Cup during that period. However, the team did have some success. In 2007-2008, they finished first in the eastern conference with 104 points and went to the second round of the playoffs losing to the Flyers. The 2008-2009 season however was more difficult. Bob Gainey seeing that the window of opportunity of his plan was closing down that season made some panicking moves like firing of coach Guy Carbonneau and replacing him behind the bench. Without Markov and Lang for the playoffs and an injured Bouillon, the Habs folded to the Bruins in 4 games. The window of opportunity was now closed: the contracts of Montreal's core players were now up (Koivu, Kovalev, Lang, Brisebois, Schneider and Brisebois) and were now too old to be re-signed for multiple years. It was time to start anew and Gainey thus announced another quinquennial plan. This news was received with disdain: "Not another five years!" This new plan changed the face of the franchise with the arrival of six new veteran faces with different contract length(years): Gomez(5), Gionta(5), Cammalleri(5), Moen(3), Spacek(3) and Gill(2).

Now, 3 years have passed and we should theoretically be at the beginning of the two-year window of opportunity for a shot at the Stanley Cup. However, much has changed in the last season. Cammalleri, Spacek and Gill where all traded during the season, the Habs finished last in the eastern conference, Pierre Gauthier (who succeeded Bob Gainey as general manager) was fired by owner and president Geoff Molson and Bob Gainey decided to resign after learning the news. Since the group presided by the Molson family acquired the Montreal Canadiens franchise, Geoff Molson has exhibited multiple signs of wanting to meddle with the operation affairs of the club. One such sign of meddling was at the 2011 entry draft when Geoff Molson wanted the Montreal Canadiens to draft Olivier Archambault (a Quebecer) contrary to the scouting staff's will. With Gauthier and Gainey now out, the second quinquennial plan now seems officially over, or is it?

Geoff Molson has made public statements saying that he wants to change the identity of club by bringing "a winning attitude", make his team harder to play against and bring more grit. This seems contrary to the image/plan of the second quinquennial plan that brought in the 3 "smurfs". However, in the last 2 years of Gainey's first quinquennial plan, the Habs were one of the most physical team in the league. This indicates to me that Gainey values physical play. And if we assume that the second quinquennial plan was a logical follow-up to the first one, physical play and the "hard to play against mentality" were probably always a part of the plan (even if it would only materialize at a later stage). Let's not forget that Gauthier/Gainey were the ones that brought in Moen, Cole, Emelin and Bourque. (It could however be argued that Molson asked specifically for these moves as they happened only in the last year). In the last season, Montreal has jumped from the 26th to the 17th position in hits. Marc Bergevin has followed the same route by adding Prust, Armstrong and Bouillon, all physical players. It should be emphasized that it is much less expensive and easier to add bottom6 gritty players to a line-up than top6 skilled players. The big (overpaid) contracts that were given in 2009 now offer good market value relative to the new cap ceiling. For example, when Mike Cammalleri was signed in the 2009 summer, his contract was accounting for 10.56% of the then available cap space (6M / 56.8M), but will only be accounting for 8.55% next season (6M / 70.2M). This explains in part why Calgary did not re-sign him at that price in 2009, but were now willing to trade for him this season.


Identifying the identity of a team
To identify the identity of a team, you first need to identify the identity of the its players individually. However, not all players should be assigned the same weight. Players with a bigger role on the team should be put more weight on. Players with longer contracts or contracts that are expected to be extended (particularly for young players who are RFA) should also be weighted more heavily. Thus, the veteran defensemen Gill/Spacek with their 2/3 year contracts where never expected to be part of the team at the end of the 5-year plan. On the other hand, players that are drafted by the team are expected to play with the team until they have at least 7 years of professional experience or are at least 27 years old. The drafting choices of the Habs have thus much more impact on its identity than the signing of UFA to five years or less terms. How a team drafts in the first round is a clear indicator of what identity it is aiming for.

1st round drafting by the Montreal Canadiens
2012: Galchenyuk
2011: Beaulieu
2010: Tinordi
2009: Leblanc
2008: none, (Kristo)
2007: McDonagh, (Eller), Pacioretty, (Subban)
2006: David Fischer
2005: Price
2004: Chipchura
2003: A. Kostitsyn
2002: Higgins
2001: Komisarek, Perezhogin

Note1: Acquired by trade or highly talented 2nd round picks between parentheses
Note2: Excluding the last 5 drafts, all of the Habs' first rounders made it in the NHL, except David Fisher

  • Common denominator: above average speed
  • Many of these players play a physical game: Komisarek, Higgins, A. Kostitsyn, Pacioretty, Tinordi, Beaulieu or intense game along the boards: Eller, Subban, Leblanc, Galchenyuk
  • Higgins and Chipchura faced serious injuries in their career and were traded away.
  • McDonagh, as the last playoffs have revealed, plays a relatively soft game and was traded away (in the Gomez trade). On the other hand, Eller was acquired through trade (Halak trade) and plays an intense game.


Has the franchise improved in the last 3 years?
As Jacques Martin, former coach of Montreal Canadiens, said multiple times in his interviews, players should focus primarily on the process and not the results. Obviously the results were not there last season as the team finished last in the eastern conference, but what about the process?

Offensive abilities can rarely be improved in a player, however the defensive side of their game can be improved with good coaching combined with willingness from the player. Such improvement is most important for young players who have few games of experience in the NHL. Gorges, Subban and Eller are three young players that have greatly improved their games during the last seasons. Gorges and Subban have been used with Hal Gill as a shutdown defensive pair in the playoffs with success. The acquisition of Gill in 2009, who had just won the Stanley Cup with Pittsburgh, was a great mentor for their development. Lars Eller and Andrei Kostitsyn (on the same line as Moen) were used as a shutdown line against high quality of opposition for some games this season. Andrei Kostitsyn has had some success with Nashville after being traded making some great defensive plays in the playoffs. Desharnais, Pacioretty and even Cole just had their most productive season in all their respective careers. Although the young players have displayed some encouraging improvement, some would argue that some of the veterans have regressed. The most glaring example is Gomez which I will now discuss in more details.

Gomez just had his least productive season in all his career (although it should be noted that he played only 38 games). Is it possible that his talent has completely disappeared? I highly doubt it. His talent (which is still present) just does not translate in point production anymore. Gomez is a fairly uni-dimensional player in some aspects. He has great vision, speed and passing skills, however his shot is terribly slow and inaccurate. He thus relies heavily on his wingers to complete the plays he creates and his production is thus very dependent on the quality of his teammates. Gomez was however demoted this season (to the profit of Desharnais) and has played with really low-skilled wingers. Last season, he was the center who played with the lowest quality of teammates on the team which was not the case the previous seasons. Gomez also played some nights as a winger, because of the surplus of centers on the team which is not his natural position. Gomez also played very few nights with his long time buddy Giointa with which he has very good chemistry. (Both were together in the line-up only 13 games this season and when they were, they did not necessarily play on the same line.) On November 19, 2011 when Gomez played  against his former team the New York Rangers on the same line as Gionta, he had a very productive night with 2 assists and was all over the ice. Gomez and Gionta also need a big body on their line to create some space for them. When it was the case (with Pouliot or Pacioretty), their line was very productive. Another possible explanation for Gomez's production decrease is that Gomez is a power play specialist that used to make a good proportion of his point production on the power play. However, power play opportunities have greatly decreased league-wide in the last seasons as I have illustrated in one of my previous post.

My general conclusion is that individually most players on the current roster of the Montreal Canadiens have improved over the last seasons. However, not all of them were used in their "right chair" (teammates, opposition faced). If results did not materialize, it was because their utilization was not optimal to guarantee results and wins. Facing a quality of opposition a notch too high for your abilities may help you develop your defensive game (process), but it will not translate into wins for the team (results).

Friday, July 20, 2012

Rick Nash in Montreal (Updated)


Now that Zach Parise and Ryan Suter are out of the market (after signing ridiculously long contracts), the biggest fish left in the pound is now Rich Nash.


Transaction proposal
Rick Nash
VS
Erik Cole
David Desharnais
Sebastian Collberg
2013 MTL 1st round pick


Reviewing recent past moves from Columbus
Defense
They acquired 2 defensemen:
On February 24, 2012, the Jackets acquire defenseman Jack Johnson in exchange of Jeff Carter and a conditional 1st round pick.
On June 22, 2012, Columbus selects Ryan Murray 2nd overall in the 2012 entry draft.

Goaltending
They acquired one backup goalie:
On June 22, 2012 before the 2012 entry draft, Scott Howson acquires Sergei Bobrovsky in exchange of their 45th (2nd round pick acquired from the Phoenix Coyotes) and 117th (4th round pick acquired from the Vancouver Canucks) selections in the 2012 draft and a 4th round pick in the 2013 entry draft (also acquired from the Phoenix Coyotes).

Forwards
They acquired one centerman and traded away three others.
On November 8, 2011, the Blue Jackets trade for Mark Letestu in exchange of their own 4th round pick in the 2012 entry draft.
On February 22, 2012, Scott Howson trades Antoine Vermette to the Phoenix Coyotes for a 2nd round pick in the 2012 entry draft (Ottawa's), a conditional 5th round pick in the 2013 entry draft (Phoenix's) that transformed into a 2013 4th round pick when the Coyotes made it to the second round of the playoffs and minor league goaltender Curtis McElhinney.
On February 24, 2012, the Jackets acquire defenseman Jack Johnson in exchange of Jeff Carter and a conditional 1st round pick.
On February 27, 2012, Scott Howson trades Sami Pahlsson to the Vancouver Canucks in exchange of minor league defenseman Taylor Ellington and two 4th round picks in 2012 (the Canucks' own and the New York Islanders' which was acquired in exchange of Christian Ehrhoff's rights).

After all these trades and Rick Nash taken out, this is what the Blue Jackets could look like next season:

2012-2013 Columbus Blue Jackets roster at this time with Rick Nash taken out
FORWARDS
R.J. Umberger ($4.600m) / ????????????????? / ???????????????
Vinny Prospal ($2.500m) /  Derick Brassard ($3.200m) / Ryan Johansen ($1.945m)
Nick Foligno ($3.083m) / Mark Letestu ($0.625m) / Derek Dorsett ($1.633m)
Derek MacKenzie ($1.000m) / Colton Gillies ($0.625m) / Jared Boll ($1.050m)
Ryan Russell ($0.700m) / Cam Atkinson ($0.875m)

DEFENSEMEN
Jack Johnson ($4.357m) / James Wisniewski ($5.500m)
Fedor Tyutin ($4.500m) / Nikita Nikitin ($2.150m)
Ryan Murray ($3.775m) / Adrian Aucoin ($2.250m)
John Moore ($0.965m)

GOALTENDERS
Steve Mason ($2.900m)
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m)

If Nash ends up not being traded, Johansen would take a spot at center and Rick Nash and Cam Atkinson would fill the right wing slots on the top6. As both Brassard and Johansen have been used on the wing this season, the Blue Jackets are most likely looking for 2 top6 centers, 2 top6 right wingers or, even better, one first line center and one fist line right winger to complete their roster in an hypothetical trade involving Rick Nash. There are however by definition only 90 forwards in the league that fit that definition. The most competitive teams have only 4 of these forwards. (Boston is the only team to have 5 forwards that rank in the top90.) Parting with two of them to get one (Nash) is a pensez-y bien.


Other teams in the race for Nash
Three teams have reportedly been very active to acquire Rick Nash: the LA Kings, the San Jose Sharks and the New York Rangers. What could be Colombus' demands for each of these teams? Here are the forwards that fit the bill (top90 forwards / center or right winger / one young veteran & one seasoned veteran)

Sharks: Logan Couture & Joe Pavelski
Rangers: Derek Stepan & Ryan Callahan
Kings: Dustin Brown & Justin Williams

Any deal including these players would automatically beat my original offer, but these players are also very unlikely to be traded by their respective teams.


Dissecting the hypothetical Columbus-Montreal trade
Rick Nash
Rick Nash is a special player: he was drafted first overall in 2002 and is part of a special club of players who have scored 30 goals or more for at least 6 seasons since the lockout. Only 5 players are part of that club and the other members played with far better teams and teammates than Nash. His best season was in 2008-2009 when he scored 40 goals and 79 points. This was accomplished without a true #1 center to feed him passes. Rick Nash is also a very hard player to contain on the ice as judged by number of penalties drawn against him per 60 minutes of ice time at even strength last season. This translated in about 0.45 power play opportunities per game for his team (4th highest in the league). He also had the 4th best penalty differential adjusted for ice-time in the league. He is thus a very handy player to have on your team if it possesses a strong power play. Also, as illustrated in the video above, Rick Nash is very good for capitalizing on breakaway opportunities. Plekanec is a center that tends to create a lot of these and would be a very good fit for Nash (he is also a very good play maker).

All is however not merry. Nash just had his least productive season in the last 5 years with 30 goals and 59 points despite playing all 82 games (ranking behind Desharnais and Cole). His goal and point totals have been on a constant decline over the last 4 seasons. Furthermore, historical analysis of elite goal-scoring wingers suggest that their peak is attained between the ages of 23 and 25 and that their production begins to decline by the time they are 26. They are however exceptions such as Iginla, but Nash's decline in production over the last seasons could lead one to believe that he is part of the norm rather than an exception. If Nash's production continues to decline, his contract (at $7.8M caphit) could become an anchor for his team. (Note: The fact that Scott Howson said in his press conference after the trade deadline that it was Nash that asked for a trade could have for purpose to go against the image of a team attempting to get rid of a potentially bad contract.) Nash also has the bad reputation of a player deficient in his own zone due to his bad +/- stats. He however faced the highest quality of competition for forwards on his team each night and was most certainly not centered by a great two-way player.

Erik Cole
At age 33, Erik Cole has just known his career year with 35 goals and 61 points despite already playing 10 years in the NHL. The season before, he played with world-class center Eric Staal in Carolina against the highest quality of competition. This season is played with newcomer David Desharnais as center and got better offensive production facing mid grade quality of competition. Should we attribute Cole's higher offensive output to his new centerman or the lowest quality of competition he was facing? That question is up to debate. An other important factor is that Cole still has three years left on his contract and will be 36 years old by the time it ends. The game of a power forward is more hard on the body that the game of power play specialist such as Teemu Selanne or Mark Recchi. However, Doan and Iginla and two relatively old power forwards that are still kicking it in the league (although they have shown some signs of slowdown). Will Cole be able to maintain his current offensive production until the end of his contract?

David Desharnais
Despite his small stature, David Desharnais was the 20th point producing center in the league (effectively filling the role of a tier2 #1 center). He has shown that he can produce a lot of points in the NHL if he is given two big quality wingers. The Blue Jackets could recreate that winning situation for him by letting him play with Cole and Umberger in Columbus. Umberger is not as talented as Pacioretty and never has scored  30 goals in the NHL, but he fits the power forward mold just like Pacioretty does (big and fast on his skates).

Sebastian Collberg
As the Jackets get noticeably older with the replacement of Nash by Cole, it is in their right to ask for the best right-wing prospect the Habs have. Their eyes will most likely be laid on Sebastian Collberg, drafted 33th overall in the last entry draft. Trevor Timmins in a video interview qualified him as worthy of the 1st round.

2013 MTL 1st round pick
At first glance, Montreal's 1st rounder has more value that any other 1st rounder that could be offered by the Kings, Sharks or Rangers. These three teams all made the playoffs this year and if they did not make it again next season it would be a big upset. Montreal on the other hand finished last in the eastern conference and if they went far into the playoffs next year it would be a big surprise. Furthermore, without 2 of their top3 best point producers last season gone, a new management, a change of philosophy and much of the same players as last year, results could be expected to take time before they improve. The arrival of Nash would certainly help the Habs, but even with him in their line-up Columbus did finish dead last in the league last season. A first rounder would also be a must for Columbus in a transaction involving Nash. With the 1st round pick acquired in the transaction that sent Jeff Carter to the Kings, the Blue Jackets would effectively have 3 picks in the first round of the promising 2013 entry draft. 

Note: Erik Cole's NTC and Rick Nash's NMC are both possible barriers to this hypothetical trade.


Speculating on what could have went down
A possible explanation as to why Montreal was never in the rumors concerning Rick Nash is that Pierre Gauthier made the initial offer to the Blue Jackets that set the benchmark for the price of Nash which was essentially the one I just proposed, but probably a less generous one (for example two second round picks instead of a first round pick and Sebastian Collerberg as he was not drafted yet at that time). That proposal set the benchmark for the price of Nash and Howson then probed the other general managers on Nash's secret trade list in an attempt to get a better deal, but without success as no trade happened before the trade deadline. It was also in the interest of Howson to wait until summer so teams with cap restraints could make some place for Nash on their roster. Pierre Gauthier had told in some of his interviews that he had a plan in mind to put the franchise right back on track and that it is now possible to do so quickly in the new NHL. He also regarded his recently acquired 2nd round picks as tools that could be used in one way or another. Trading for Nash could have been that plan: the plan of a desperate GM trying to save his team's season and his job. However, at that time Montreal was not as low as it finished in the standings and Nash could have given a small boost to the team thus reducing the value of the picks it could have offered. The fact that Nash asked for a trade and that his NMC permitted him to choose a selected list of teams he was willing to get traded to could have sparked the hypothesis of a conspiracy in Howson's mind, because Nash and a rival GM could have conspired against him. The recent firing of Gauthier and the total change of management however eliminates the possibly that such a plan was engineered by the Habs management. 


Fueling the rumor mill
Erik Cole's contract structure makes him particularly valuable for a team on a tight budget: 8 millions of the original 18 million contract are already paid for by the Montreal Canadiens for only 1 season of play out of 4. The Columbus Blue Jackets would only have to pay the remaining 10 millions over the course of the next three years (an average spending of $3.33M) whereas the cap hit of the contract stays at $4.5M, an economy of more than $1M per year on average and an actual economy of $2.5M during the first year. Also, trading away Mike Cammalleri (a top6 forward) for Rene Bourque (a top9 forward) effectively left a top6 forward position empty on the Habs' roster which could be filled by Rick Nash. Furthermore, Erik Cole and David Desharnais were put this season in a very favorable light: their line stayed intact almost the whole season and they were put against 3rd grade opposition when playing at home.


Would Montreal be giving too much?
As a whole what Montreal would be offering for Nash may seem a lot, but by looking at each piece individually we see that the organization took great precaution to dampen the lost of each. Erik Cole was an UFA last summer and any team could potentially have signed him without giving anything in return. His contract cap space was the only opportunity cost of signing him. Rick Nash would effectively take his spot on the right wing on the first line. Montreal has also great depth at center: Plekanec, Gomez, Eller, Nokelainen, White, Leblanc and Desharnais could all fill that role next season. Giving away the only one that was never drafted or traded for has also very little opportunity considering another center could take his spot. Desharnais also does not fit the mold of the ideal #1 center one would want to have on the ice during a Stanley Cup final game in over time. His size and his play in his own zone are his main drawbacks. The loss of Sebastian Collberg would be dampened by the fact that the Habs drafted twice in the second round of the 2012 entry draft. The loss of the 1st round pick in 2013 would be amortized by the fact that Montreal has 2 extra second round picks for that draft. If the Habs manage to get a deep run in the playoffs next season (conference final), the draft position of the Canadiens would effectively be the same as a team trading its late 1st round pick for two second round picks. Conversely, the Habs could still "trade up the draft" by exchanging two of their earliest second rounders for a late first round pick if they are interested in one particular prospect anticipated to be drafted at the end of the first round. However ex ante, Montreal's first round pick has more than this because it is less than clear at this point in time at the Montreal Canadiens will have a good run in the playoffs next season.


Final rosters after proposed trade
2012-2013 Columbus Blue Jackets after trade with Montreal
FORWARDS
R.J. Umberger ($4.600m) / David Desharnais ($0.850m) / Erik Cole ($4.500m)
Vinny Prospal ($2.500m) / Derick Brassard ($3.200m) / Ryan Johansen ($1.945m)
Nick Foligno ($3.083m) / Mark Letestu ($0.625m) / Derek Dorsett ($1.633m)
Derek MacKenzie ($1.000m) / Colton Gillies ($0.625m) / Jared Boll ($1.050m)
Ryan Russell ($0.700m) / Cam Atkinson ($0.875m)

DEFENSEMEN
Jack Johnson ($4.357m) / James Wisniewski ($5.500m)
Fedor Tyutin ($4.500m) / Nikita Nikitin ($2.150m)
Ryan Murray ($3.775m) / Adrian Aucoin ($2.250m)
John Moore ($0.965m)

GOALTENDERS
Steve Mason ($2.900m)
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m)

BUYOUTS
Mike Commodore ($1.542m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $56,875,476; BONUSES: $2,337,500
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $13,324,524

After the trade, the Blue Jackets would become a team spending near the floor (of $54.2M) which is not a bad thing considering Columbus has been the team with the second largest deficit (as measured by operating earnings) after the Phoenix Coyotes for the 2010-2011 season. Assuming that the cap hit equals the actual salary paid (not a big assumption for the Blue Jackets), they had a payroll of about $54.746M (after excluding the bonus cushion) for that season. Increasing revenues (by ticket price inflation) and keeping spending near that level would decrease their deficit.

Also, the 23-man roster presented contains 3 extra players with 2-way contracts that can be sent to the minors to save extra money (Russell, Atkinson and Moore). Combined, these contracts account for $2.54M. After subtracting these contracts from the total, it gives a total around $54.335M for the 20-man roster which is barely $0.135M above next year's cap floor (assuming it stays the same with the new CBA). I have also given Ryan Murray the maximal amount for an ELC (Entry Level Contract). This contract would contain a $2.85M performance bonus that is unlikely to be achieved (or at least completely) by a 18-year-old rookie defenseman playing on the third paring. When you also factor in Erik Cole's front-loaded contract (of which the bulk such as the signing bonuses have already been paid by Montreal), it adds up to significant cost savings for the Blue Jackets without hurting the competitiveness of the team (which is already low anyway).

2012-2013 Montreal Canadiens after hypothetical trade with Columbus (and more)
FORWARDS
Andrei Kostitsyn ($4.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Scott Gomez ($7.357m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Rene Bourque ($3.333m) / Lars Eller ($1.325m) / Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
Brandon Prust ($2.500m) / Ryan White ($0.688m) / Travis Moen ($1.850m)
Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m)

DEFENSEMEN
Josh Gorges ($3.900m) / P.K. Subban ($5.000m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Alexei Emelin ($2.000m)
Francis Bouillon ($1.500m) / Raphael Diaz ($1.225m)

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($6.500m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,077,976; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,122,024


 


***

UPDATE: Rick Nash traded to the New York Rangers
Rich Nash
Steven Delisle (minor league defenseman)
2013 CBJ 3rd round pick conditional to the Rangers not making the Stanley Cup Final
VS 
Brandon Dubinsky 
Artem Anisimov
Tim Erixon (drafted 23rd overall by Calgary in 2009)
2013 NYR 1st round pick

As I originally expected, the return for Nash consisted of 4 pieces: 1 veteran forward fitting the power forward mold (Dubinsky), 1 young forward established in the league (Anisimov), 1 high grade prospect (Erixon) and a 2013 1st round pick. As Dubinsky, Anisimov, Brassard and Johansen are all natural centers at least two of them will play on the wing. (Anisimov and Dubinsky played on the wing last season.)

My surprise comes from the quality of the two veteran forwards acquired. I envisioned that two first line players (top90 forwards in the league) should come back to Columbus in a trade involving Nash. I have no doubt in my mind that it is what Columbus was asking for, but as we can all see their demands were not satisfied. Considering only last season's point production, Dubinsky and Anisimov barely qualify as top6 forwards as they rank 172th and 158th for points respectively amongst forwards. Dubinsky did however have one 54 point season one year ago.

2012-2013 Columbus Blue Jackets after trade with New York Rangers
FORWARDS
R.J. Umberger ($4.600m) / Derick Brassard ($3.200m) / Brandon Dubinsky ($4.200m)
Vinny Prospal ($2.500m) / Mark Letestu ($0.625m) / Ryan Johansen ($1.945m)
Nick Foligno ($3.083m) / Artem Anisimov ($1.875m) / Derek Dorsett ($1.633m)
Derek MacKenzie ($1.000m) / Colton Gillies ($0.625m) / Jared Boll ($1.050m)

DEFENSEMEN
Jack Johnson ($4.357m) / James Wisniewski ($5.500m)
Fedor Tyutin ($4.500m) / Nikita Nikitin ($2.150m)
Ryan Murray ($3.500m) / Adrian Aucoin ($2.250m)

GOALTENDERS
Steve Mason ($2.900m)
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m)

BUYOUTS
Mike Commodore ($1.542m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $54,785,476; BONUSES: $2,175,000
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $15,414,524
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=13445

Thursday, July 12, 2012

How Many Power Forwards Do You Have on your Team? or The Importance of Poward Forwards




What is a power forward?
"In ice hockey, power forward (PF) is a loosely applied characterization of a forward who is big and strong, equally capable of playing physically or scoring goals and would most likely have high totals in both points and penalties. It is usually used in reference to a forward who is physically large, with the toughness to dig the puck out of the corners, possesses offensive instincts, has mobility, puck-handling skills, may be difficult to knock off the puck and willingly engage in fights when he feels it's required. Possessing both physical size and offensive ability, power forwards are also often referred to as the 'complete' hockey player." from Wikipedia.

Attempting to translate that definition into readily available stats, I made the following not too restrictive arbitrary definition: a player with at least 100 hits in a season and 20 goals scored at even strength. I use goals at even strength, because goals scored at 5v5 are usually more often the result of toughness, winning individual battles and gaining position on an opponent (ex see the video above) than on the power play which is more about pure offensive skills (passing, shooting, etc.)

 2007-2008 Power Forwards

2008-2009 Power Forwards

2009-2010 Power Forwards

2010-2011 Power Forwards

2011-2012 Power Forwards

Power Forward Summary

Remarks
  • Although I did not put any restriction on player weight/height in my definition of a power forward, no power forward in my study is under 6 feet and only 3 are slightly below 200 pounds (all in the 2011-2012 season)
  • To be considered a power forward for multiple seasons is a very rare feat: only Alex Ovechkin(5), Bobby Ryan(3) and Scott Hartell(3) made it more than twice.
  • The 2011-2012 saw a lot of young and upcoming players making the list: Evander Kane, Max Pacioretty, Jamie Benn, James Neal
  • The number of identified power forwards increases each season, this trend can be decomposed into an increase of even strength 20 goal scorers and an increase of 100+ hitters over the 5 season span.
  • Over the seasons, a higher proportion of 20+ even strength goal scorers have also given 100+ hits and a higher of proportion of 100+ hitters have also scored 20+ even strength goals. This could be interpreted that either some high skilled players are getting more physical or that physical players are getting more efficient at scoring goals (or are getting more ice time).

***

Next, I look at possible explanations for the increase in 20+ even strength scorers and 100+ hitters

Goal types as a percentage of total goals scored

Even strength and power play goals as a percentage of total goals scored

Remarks
  • After the lockout, the proportion of goals scored on the power play soared to 33% and has constantly decreased since to fall to 21% last season.
  • During the same time period, the proportion of goals scored at even strength took the inverse direction growing from 59% to 72%.
  • After the lockout, the total amount of goals scored jumped to above 7400 from a level of around 6300. The increase in total goals scored was mainly attributable to an increase of goals scored on the power play (2500 vs 1700).
  • In the last season, total goals scored fell to almost pre-lockout levels, but even strength goals scored is markedly higher than pre-lockout levels.
  • Over the last 3 seasons, even strength goal scoring was near constant while power play goal scoring continued to decline.
  • After the lockout, the proportion of empty net goals saw a slight and almost linear increase which could be interpreted in an increase in the number of tight one-goal games.

Power play opportunities

Power play opportunities

Remarks
  • The season after the lockout saw an increase of about 4000 power play opportunities from the previous season.
  • Since then, power play opportunities have decreased from season to season
  • Since 2005-2006, there has been a decrease of about 6200 power play opportunities.
  • Since 2007-2008, there has been a decrease of about 2400 power play opportunities.
  • The downward trend is slowing down.


Power play efficiency

Power play efficiency

Remarks
  • Over the last 12 seasons, power play efficiency and power play play shot efficiency have been relatively stable.
  • Since 2008-2009, power play efficiency has been on a slight downward trend.
  • Since 2005-2006, power play shot efficiency has been on a slight downward trend which could potentially be explained by an increase in blocked shots.

Hits

Hits

Remarks
  • Unlike goals, hits are harder to measure and are more subjective.
  • The big change in hits from 2001-2002 to 2002-2003 is most likely the result of a change in the counting methodology than the league becoming inexplicably "softer" the next year.
  • Assuming the counting methodology is the same since the lockout, the league got more and more physical since 2005.
  • In the last 3 seasons, the number of hits has been fairly constant.


***

Coming back to the power forward issue...
As just demonstrated, even strength goals and hits have been fairly constant over the last 3 seasons. These seasons are thus the most comparable. From 2009-2010 to 2011-12, the number of power forwards jumped from 8 to 13 which leads me to believe that the top-end talent is getting more physical or that some physical players are more thriving under the "modern" NHL. I made the following somewhat arbitrary classification of power forwards with examples from the 2011-2012 season

1. The Power Forward Prototypes (constant 20 ES goal scorers and 100+ hitters)
  • Alex Ovechkin, Bobby Ryan, Scott Hartnell
2. Constant 20 ES goal scorers hovering near 100 hits
  • Jarome Iginla, Rick Nash
3. Constant 100+ hitters hovering near 20 ES goals
  • Erik Cole, Chris Kunitz
4. Young and upcoming Power Forwards
  •  Evander Kane, Max Pacioretty, Jamie Benn, James Neal
5. Highly productive third liners at even strength (the New Power Forward Breed)
  • Pascal Dupuis, David Clarkson

I attribute the increase in power forwards this season to categories 4 & 5 which were empty the season before.
Category 4: some of the new top-end talent entering the league is playing a physical game
Category 5: physical third liners that are getting more ice-time due to the reduction of power play opportunities are scoring more goals at even strength

Monday, July 9, 2012

How to Still Get Evander Kane in Montreal (Updated)

Briefly reviewing Montreal's past moves
1. Trading away a small offensively-minded defensively-challenged top6 forward (Cammalleri) for a physical top9 forward better in his own zone, but less talented offensively in Rene Bourque (who effectively took AK46's spot on the 3rd line) The Habs received a 2nd round pick in 2013 from Calgary in the trade.

2. Trading away AK46 who was relayed to a third line role with Eller (but playing against high quality of competition) which he was not especially suited for (mainly because of his frequent turnovers). The Habs received a 2nd round pick in 2013 from Nashville in the trade.


The plan
To come full circle, a possible move would be to trade away picks for an offensive top6 forward (effectively filling the void left by Cammalleri). One possible way to accomplish this is to present an offer sheet to a RFA. One current RFA that fits the bill is Evander Kane.

According to capgeek, Winnipeg has currently about 50.9M tied up in 20 players. Winnipeg has thus 3.3M left to spend before reaching the salary floor. Winnipeg's next moves probably include giving a 4-5M contract to Evander Kane and maybe signing a 7th depth defenseman. There is no way to know for sure what the Jets' internal salary spending limit is, but my uneducated guess is that is it below 60M. (Note: although Winnipeg currently has 50.9M tied up in cap hit, it will actually only pay about 50.1M in salary next season for the 20 NHL players currently under contract).

I thus propose the following offer sheet contract which has a cap hit of 6M
10.00M (8M+ signing bonus)
5.00M
5.00M
5.00M
5.00M
Which is in agreement with the CBA rules
Note 1: it is possible to create a contract even more front-loaded than this. The first year salary should be as high as the Jets' maximum salary budget is believed to be minus 50.1M
Note 2: the term of the proposed offer sheet contract is only 5 years, because the CBA has made it impossible to exploit the loophole of tail years with small salaries for offer sheet contracts
10.4 Draft Choice Compensation for Restricted Free Agents
Any Club that is entitled to but does not exercise its Right of First Refusal pursuant to Section 10.3 shall be entitled to obtain Draft Choice Compensation from the New Club. The number and quality of draft choices due to the Prior Club shall be based on the average annual value of the compensation contained in the Principal Terms (as defined in Section 10.3(e) hereof) of the New Club's Offer Sheet (determined by dividing such compensation by the lesser of the number of years of the Offer Sheet or five) (See The 2005 NHL CBA p.38)
Note 3 (update): the Flyers used the same basic strategy I outlined here with their offer sheet to Shea Weber


The idea behind such a contract is to provoke a liquidity shortage for the cash strapped Jets organization. Lacking the short term cash to finance such a contract (created in large part by the signing bonus payable immediately), Winnipeg would not be a position to match the offer sheet and would let Evander Kane walk (to their dismay).

Since my offer sheet has a cap hit of 6M (which is in-between $5,046,585 to $6,728,781), the compensation the Habs would have to give the Jets is their 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick in the next 2013 draft. The 1st rounder (in what is to be believed an excellent draft) has in itself great value (especially if the Jets believe the Habs are headed for another abysmal season). This alone could make them think twice about matching the offer.

Montreal would thus have in its top6, 3 of last year's 5 top producing power forwards in the league.

Digression: I define a power forward as a winger with 100+ hits and 20+ 5v5 goals. Only 13 forwards in the league met these criteria last season.
According to these criteria the top 5 power forwards in the league last year were (ranked by 5v5 goals)
  1. Max Pacioretty
  2. Bobby Ryan
  3. Alex Ovechkin
  4. Erik Cole
  5. Evander Kane

Caveats
  1. Giving $10M right away to an unproven 20/21 year old (who apparently likes night life) could hinder his development if his personality is predisposed to the "big-head syndrome"
  2. Possible hatred from Winnipeg for taking away their best young offensive prospect
  3. Prior to presenting an offer sheet to Evander Kane, the Habs should sign Subban in the fear of an offer sheet retaliation from Winnipeg targeting Subban.
  4. Although Evander Kane's point production has constantly increased over the last 3 years, he has faced easier and easier competition each year. While he faced the highest opposition in his junior year, he faced 2nd grade opposition in his second year and 3rd grade opposition last season. This should however not be too much of a concern if you plan to use him against relatively easy opposition from the get-go on your match-up planning (ie you know what he can or cannot bring). (Note: a strategic employment of Kane would have called to make him play the toughest minutes in his contract year to dampen his statistics and get better leverage in the contract negotiations.)

Bottom line
Kane > Cammalleri (more physical, goal production ceiling potentially higher)
Bourque > Kostitsyn (in that 3rd line role, better defensively)
(2nd round pick) x2 < 1st round pick + 2nd round pick + 3rd round pick


Final line-up
FORWARDS
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Erik Cole ($4.500m)
Evander Kane ($5.000m) / Scott Gomez ($7.357m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Rene Bourque ($3.333m) / Lars Eller ($1.325m) / Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
Brandon Prust ($2.500m) / Petteri Nokelainen ($0.575m) / Travis Moen ($1.850m)
Ryan White ($0.688m)

DEFENSEMEN
Josh Gorges ($3.900m) / P.K. Subban ($4.000m)
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Alexei Emelin ($2.000m)
Tomas Kaberle ($4.250m) / Francis Bouillon ($1.500m)
Yannick Weber ($0.850m)

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($6.500m)
Peter Budaj ($1.150m)
------
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,652,976;
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $547,024
http://www.capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster.php?id=11829

Pac - Pleky - Cole
A line similar in composition to Bertuzzi - Datsyuk - Franzen (two big power forwards + two-way center)
If a line of Darche - Plek - Moen could shutdown Malkin's line in the regular season, I imagine this would do the trick (and at the same time be more of an offensive threat).
That exact line was very productive against Vancouver (2nd encounter) when Desharnais was out.
Envisioned use: against the highest quality of competition

Kane - Gomer - Gio
A line similar in composition to Pacio - Gomez - Gionta that was very productive before Pacioretty's injury.
Envisioned use: against 3rd grade competition (Kane and Gomez are not particularly great in their own end)

Bourque - Eller - Army 
Rene Bourque has also been used against the highest quality of competition in Calgary for the 3 and a half years he spent there. However, he was not particularly successful playing with Plekanec against the highest competition in the second half of the season (but the whole team was in disarray).
Colby Armstrong was used against the highest quality of competition in Atlanta before signing in Toronto.
Eller was successfully used some nights against high quality of competition with teammates Moen and Kostitsyn.
Colby, Eller and Bourque are all similar in various ways: all have strong shooting percentages (above 10%), all score their goals near the net, all have good skates and all play a physical game.
Envisioned use: against 2nd grade competition

Prust - Noke/White - Moen
Checking line that can drop the gloves.
Nokelainen: face-off specialist

Penalty Kill
The acquisition of Prust permits the use of two very good forward pairs on the PK
Plekanec - Moen
Eller - Prust
A Noke/White - Bourque pair is not too bad either.

Gorges - Subban
Shutdown pair
Both were mentored by Hal Gill and were used with him in a similar role in the playoffs.
Really good pair with few scoring chances against in the second half of last season
Envisioned use: against the highest quality of competition

Markov - Emelin
A pair reminiscent of Markov - Komisarek
When at 100%, Markov should make his blue-line partner look better.
Envisioned use: against 2nd grade competition

Kaberle - Bouillon
Kaberle didn't look too good in his zone last season, but this can be attributed to the fact that he was often paired with a rookie in Emelin or other offensive defensemen that are even worst in their own zone (Campoli, Weber)
Bouillon is a good defensive defenseman  that had a strong showing in this year's playoffs. He will be a good complement to Kaberle.
Envisioned use: against 3rd grade competition


Trade Baits for extra picks
David Desharnais (potentially a 2nd round pick)
Raphael Diaz (potentially a 3rd round pick)
Yannick Weber (potentially a 4th round pick)

If Montreal could trade all 3 players for the picks aforementioned, it would leave Montreal with the following position at the next draft
1st round: none
2nd round: 3x
3rd round: 1x
4rd round: 1x
5th round: 1x
6th round: 1x
7th round: 1x

Notes:
Montreal could use two 2nd round picks to trade up for one 1st round pick.
The loss of a 1st round pick could be dampened by a strong playoff run (Stanley cup?)


Exploring alternatives
Shane Doan
Signing him as a UFA has no explicit cost to Montreal, except his cap hit (opportunity cost)
The implicit cost however is that he is probably looking for a long term contract that will bring him to at least 40 (expected "production" value lower than cap hit at end of contract, contradictory to the speed identity of the Habs)
Will be 36 years old next year (ie 35+ contract)
Natural right-winger (which Montreal already has two of in its top6 (Cole, Gionta), implying someone would have to play off-wing)
Has averaged a 20 goal production in the last 3 years (not great)
About 30% of his point are produced on the power play
A natural leader that has known good performance in the playoffs during past seasons
11 teams interested in him if he decides to not resign with the Coyotes (potential bidding war)

Bobby Ryan
Explicit cost: really high (Anaheim will ask a lot for him, potential bidding war)
Right-handed, but played most of his NHL career on the left wing.
Played against 2nd grade opposition last season

Saturday, July 7, 2012

How Evander Kane Escaped the Clutches of Montreal

July 2

12:36 Habs press conference scheduled at 16:30
https://twitter.com/RenLavoieRDS/status/219877179645894658

13:31 Habs press conference delayed at 17:00
https://twitter.com/RenLavoieRDS/status/219890991732244481

14:45 Carey Price signed
https://twitter.com/RenLavoieRDS/status/219909755274137600

18:11 Jokinen signs with Winnipeg
https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/219961423827185666

~18:30 Disappointed Marc Bergevin at press conference
http://tvasports.ca/video/1717434422001


My guess:
Winnipeg was looking for a #1 offensive center good on the power play
There was only Jokinen on the UFA market fitting that description
Montreal proposed Desharnais + Diaz + 2013 MTL 1st round pick for Evander Kane
Winnipeg rejected the offer and signed Jokinen of the UFA market (thus getting #1 center and keeping Kane)

Montreal's lineup would have been
Pacioretty - Plekanec - Cole
Kane - Gomez - Gionta
Armstrong - Eller - Bourque
Prust - Nokelainen/White - Moen

Gorges - Subban
Markov - Emelin
Kaberle - Bouillon
Weber


On the assumption that the Habs were deemed for another season of misery, the value of the 2013 1st round pick could potentially be overestimated by Winnipeg (or at least it was the objective).
If Calgary had not signed Cervenka out of the blue and/or Hudler was re-signed by Detroit, Calgary would've had no choice but to re-sign Jokinen leaving no #1 center on the UFA market.
Also, if the Jets suspected that getting a deal done with Kane could have been problematic (ie ask for too much money as he is not eligible for arbitration), this could have been a tempting offer.